Wednesday, 7 January 2009

Cognitive Bias in Decision Making

Abstract.
This article describe 13 kind of cognitive biases that usually occur in decision making process. These biases are caused by heuristic methods (simplified method, short cut), which are commonly used by decision maker to make daily decision.

Keyword: decision making bias, heuristic methods

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Thursday, 1 January 2009

OPTIMASI STRATEGI UNTUK MENINGKATKAN MOTIVASI DAN PENGETAHUAN GURU DENGAN PENEDEKATAN SIMULASI

Author: Dhanan Sarwo Utomo
Published:
Educare Vol.6 No.1, Agust 1st 2008

Abstract:
School is an organization which has certain goals that want to be achieved. Appropriate strategy analysis is essential in order to achieve these goals successfully. Interaction exists among students, teachers, parents and school managers within school organization. Each elements of this interaction have different goals and strategy to achieve their individual goals. The result of this interaction will affect the overall outcome of school’s strategy. Using hypothetical data we construct an agent based computer simulation to analyze interaction within school organization. Based on our simulation we analyze the effect of teacher’s performance standard and the interval of teacher evaluation toward teacher’s motivation and knowledge. As a result, we purpose several scenarios that can optimize teacher’s motivation and knowledge.

Key Words: strategy analysis, school strategy, agent based simulation.
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Managing Collaboration Using Agent Based Simulation

Author:Utomo Sarjono Putro, Manahan Siallagan, Santi Novani, Dhanan Sarwo Utomo
Publication: Proceeding PRIMA 2008: 348-356

Abstract.
The purpose of the present research is to identify, analyze and simulate dynamics of interaction and conflicts among agents using drama theory, and to apply it in Citarum river basin problem. To accomplish the purpose, we first model the process in terms of drama theory that is combined with emotional state model (PAD). One of the reasons why we adopt drama theory is that it primarily focuses on dilemma or paradox arising from rational goal seeking behavior. It also provides us with rigorous analytical and computational tools of conflict analysis. Then, we propose a simulation model to describe both of dilemma of conflict, i.e., persuasion and rejection dilemma among the agents, and the dilemma of collaboration (trust dilemma) among the agents. Finally, we conduct agent-based simulation by using SOARS (Spot Oriented Agent Role Simulator) to obtain some fruitful suggestions for encouraging their collaboration.

Keywords: Agent based Simulation, Negotiation, Dilemma, Drama Theory, Emotion.
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